Provocation and the Point of No Return: An Analysis of Victim-Precipitated Homicide

Abstract

Victim-precipitation theory is based on the notion that a victim may contribute to his or her own victimization. This research replicates Marvin Wolfgang's famous Philadelphia study on victim-precipitated homicides. Additionally, the present analysis includes variables not originally tested by Wolfgang in hopes of adding to the victimization literature. Using data from 194 homicides that occurred in Youngstown, Ohio between the years 1977-2008, information was gathered from police files to discover what demographic and situational factors increase the likelihood of a victim-precipitated homicide. Data retrieved from the Youngstown Police Department revealed that 18 percent (n=35) of homicides were victim-precipitated. Differences in the frequency of victim-precipitated homicides, as opposed to non victim-precipitated homicides are analyzed with respect to age, race, gender, victim-offender relationship, level of provocation, homicide circumstance, previous arrest record, the presence of alcohol or drugs, location, and weapon used. Utilizing binary logistic regression, three variables were statistically significant in predicting the likelihood of victim-precipitated homicide: prior criminal record of the victim, the victim-offender relationship, and the gender of the offender. Demographics of the victim, alcohol and drug consumption by the victim, homicide location, and weapon used were not significant predictors of victim-precipitated homicides. In the future, a more robust and demographically diverse sample of victim-precipitated homicides would be optimal in order to obtain a more accurate depiction of the factors which affect the likelihood of victim-precipitated homicides.