Modeling impact of hydraulic fracturing and climate change on stream low flows : a case study of Muskingum watershed in Eastern Ohio

Abstract

Oil and natural gas production in the United Sates has increased tremendously for the last few years. A significant amount of water is needed for the production of oil and natural gas through the application of advanced technique called hydraulic fracturing (fracking). This has raised a serious concern about the potential impact on hydrological cycle, due to water withdrawal for fracking, especially for low flow periods. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis is essential for the evaluation of stream low flow conditions due to unanticipated water withdrawal. In addition, the atmospheric greenhouse gases are believed to be increasing, leading to future climate change, which may alter the hydrologic flow regime in the future and threaten the hydrological and environmental sustainability. Therefore, this study was initiated to investigate the potential impact of fracking and climate change on stream low flows. Since limited modeling studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of hydraulic fracking for watershed scale studies, a systematic review and documentation of existing watershed models was conducted; this was important because an appropriate selection of watershed model for these studies is still a matter of investigation. A widely used watershed model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was found to be appropriate for the representation of the fracking process in terms of spatial and temporal scale. Various future scenarios were developed based on the possible future climatic conditions, which was conducted in two steps: i) first, analysis was conducted for the immediate future by generating a probable set of climate data (precipitation, temperature) based on historical records of the climate data; ii) second, climate change data from Coupled Model Intercomparision Project (CMIP5) using the Max Planck Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM) were analyzed for the 21st century to see the effect of climate change on stream low flows. Analysis showed that water withdrawal due to hydraulic fracking had