Analysis of variables influencing probation outcome.

Abstract

An analysis of variables that affect probation outcome was undertaken to assess the differences between successful and unsuccessful probationers. Data was collected at an adult probation department in Pennsylvania that yielded a sample of 199 probationers whose cases were terminated prior to June of 1996. An extensive literature review revealed several studies that focused on probation outcome measured by success or failure. The literature review also examined the criticisms regarding the use of recidivism as an outcome measure. Probation outcome was measured based on established criteria for definitions of success and failure. Data analysis consisted of chi-square significance testing for all independent variables against the dependent measure probation outcome (success or failure). Eight of twenty variables differentiated success from failure in assessing probation outcome. The findings enabled successful and unsuccessful probationers to be characterized by factors that can be used by correctional professionals in shortcomings, professionals of the study (methodological implications for correctional factors), and recommendations future determining selection, probationers. Limitations of the study (methodological shortcomings, researcher bias), implicatons for correctional professionals (prediction, risk factors), and recommendations for future research (better collection methods, focus on female probaitoners) were discussed. Overall, the emphasis is on the difference between successful and unsuccessful probationers. Probationers with a history of juvenile offenses and disadvantaged circumstances (lower education level, unemployment, no support system) were more likely to fail on probation. On the other hand, probationers who have invested in conventional norms (marriage, employment, education) are more apt to succeed on probation.